My thoughts on the BZE EV Report

A couple of weeks ago, Beyond Zero Emissions (BZE) released their Electric Vehicles (EV) report, which forms part of their transportation series [1]. The report is based upon scenario analysis of achieving a 100% EV fleet in Australia, powered by 100% renewable energy (as in their stationary power plan [2]). This is a worthy goal, as not only do transport emissions account for 6% of Australia’s total, but they are the most rapidly growing category [1]. There are two scenarios, low cost and high cost. The high cost scenario is 25% more expensive than Business as Usual (BAU), and the low cost is the same as BAU. The key differences between the scenarios are:

Battery tech – improvements in battery tech will improve the quality and range of EVs, as well as making them cheaper (batteries are the largest cost component of EVs)

Maintenance costs – The BZE report assumes batteries need to be replaced after 10 years. This is a significant maintenance cost associated with EVs, as the electric motors etc do not require as much maintenance as an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) based car.

Petrol prices – High petrol prices drive up the operating costs of ICE based cars.

The first two, battery tech and maintenance costs, will decrease with the number of EVs sold (and therefore R&D).  The main thing is, that I don’t think we can rely upon high petrol prices to encourage EV uptake. Predicting oil prices is a difficult thing in any case, but it is not clear that they are going to go back up to 2013 levels any time soon [3]. Therefore, we must ask ourselves, what can we rely on?

I think the key lies in combining transport policy with other kinds of public policy in order to achieve reliable outcomes. It’s not enough to focus on the cost; We must also consider the benefits to other sectors and the savings that can be achieved there.

Average age of motor vehicles in Australia is 10.1 years [4], meaning that policy can focus primarily on new vehicles and infrastructure, and still achieve a transition in an acceptable time-frame. Therefore, the key is providing appropriate infrastructure, and incentives for the purchase of EVs. The report identifies three main barriers: lack of awareness, perceived range anxiety, and a perceived high upfront cost. I think these barriers are fairly short term, which appropriate to the time-frame of the report (10 years), but neglect the main part of the transition that needs to take place.

A large part of the potential cost savings come from removal of redundant parts of the Australian urban car fleet (see graph below). This results from both decreased expenditures on cars themselves, and decreased infrastructure costs (in the long run, investments in charging infrastructure will need to be made in the short run). This redundancy removal is achieved through ride sharing, and Autonomous Vehicles (AVs). The low maintenance costs of EVs make them an attractive choice for ride sharing and taxi companies like Uber (which has previously signalled its intent to move to a completely AV fleet).

At the end of the day, it’s about decoupling the use of vehicles with their ownership. Australian cities are built around the car, and I don’t think that’s about to change anytime soon, but our relationship with car ownership can. Currently, Australians are generally expected to own a car, but this doesn’t have to be the case, and therein lies the real potential for EVs.

EV fleet make up projection. Figure taken from reference 1.

EV fleet make up projection. Figure taken from reference 1.

 

Acronyms

AV – Autonomous Vehicle

BZE – Beyond Zero Emissions

EV – Electric Vehicle

BAU – Business as Usual

ICE – Internal Combustion Engine

 

References

  1. Beyond Zero Emissions. Electric Vehicles. (2016). at <http://media.bze.org.au/ev/bze_ev_report.pdf>
  2. Beyond Zero Emissions. Zero Carbon Australia Stationary Energy Plan. (2010). at <http://media.bze.org.au/ZCA2020_Stationary_Energy_Report_v1.pdf>
  3. Aguilera, R. F. & Radetzki, M. The Price of Oil. (Cambridge University Press, 2016).
  4. Australian Bureau of Statistics. 9309.0 - Motor Vehicle Census, Australia, 31 Jan 2016. (2016). at <http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/9309.0>

 

Submission on discussion paper: Advancing Climate Action in Queensland

Below is a submission I just completed in response to the "Advancing Climate Action in Queensland" discussion paper released by the Queensland Government. I used the Environmental Defenders Office short submission template as a bit of a guide. 

Many thanks to Franziska Curran for comments.

Dear Minister Miles

Submission on discussion paper: Advancing Climate Action in Queensland

I would like to congratulate the Queensland Government for taking this step forward in implementing climate change policy in Queensland and for moving to reinstate vegetation clearing controls to limit emissions. I am grateful for the opportunity to make this submission on this discussion paper.

As a recent graduate of the Master of Energy Studies program at the University of Queensland, I have extensively studied climate and energy policy, both on a subnational and international level. Having lived most of my life in Queensland, I am excited to have the opportunity to use my skills and expertise to shape the future of my home state.

I commend the focus on emissions reductions through proper land management, and providing support to the agriculture sector to be a part of the state’s emissions reductions.

My primary concern with the discussion paper is the continued refusal of the state to take responsibility (whole or part) for the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from exported coal and gas (page 21). The current rhetoric of placing responsibility of developing countries, and using the “drug dealer’s excuse” of saying that the coal and gas will simply be bought elsewhere, is a point of view that I find morally untenable and ultimately in opposition to the goal of decarbonising the global economy.

The role of coal fired power in development is a hugely complicated issue, but it is by no means the be-all and end-all of energy poverty. In 2013 the World Bank ceased funding coal fired power projects[i], and although coal fired power will be a feature of development regimes for many years to come, Queensland could play a much more significant role in exporting ideas, rather than emissions[ii]. Much of the recent coal price slump is due to stagnating demand, and increased export capacity[iii]. Queensland should be playing no role in subsidising heavily polluting energy to the developing world, when we can provide viable alternatives. Our state has a high level of historical emissions, and therefore has a moral imperative to take a strong leadership role in curbing global emissions[iv].

That said, I think more emphasis should be placed upon the distinction between thermal and metallurgical coal, and greater effort should be made to communicate this distinction to the public. This is an important issue due to the marked differences between the two industries, which require different policy treatment.

Minister, I implore you to seize the challenge to take urgent action on climate change, and help transform Queensland into a world leader, and a shining example to other states and nations. It is of the utmost importance to current and future generations that warming remains below 1.5 degrees. At current emissions, there are only 5 years until we have used up our carbon budget[v], and Queensland has a multitude of opportunities to achieve significant emissions reductions and even negative emissions. Therefore, I request that you:

  1. Set a clear and binding framework, with strong and binding emissions targets and monitoring
  2. Stop supporting fossil fuels, and the construction of new coal mines, and support just transitions for affected communities
  3. Strengthen support for renewable energy, demand management, and energy efficiency
  4. Reduce emissions through transport planning and vegetation protection, and protect our coast
  5. Cease the rhetoric around coal for development, and take a stronger leadership approach on this issue by promoting and providing clean technologies that will prevent the suffering of future generations from the effects of catastrophic climate change.

This is an issue of great importance to current, and future generations. It is an issue which Queensland has both the opportunity, and the moral imperative, to become a world leader on. Therefore, I urge you to consider the above points, and do all in your power to meet the goal of rapidly reducing Queensland’s emissions and supporting our fast uptake of clean energy.

 

Yours sincerely,

David Olley

M. Energy Studies, BSc. Phys. (hons), Chem

 

 

[i] https://theconversation.com/world-bank-kicks-coal-but-will-the-rest-of-the-world-follow-16392

[ii] https://theconversation.com/australia-should-export-more-ideas-and-fewer-greenhouse-emissions-34236

[iii] Steckel, J. C., Edenhofer, O., & Jakob, M. (2015). Drivers for the renaissance of coal. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(29), E3775–E3781. doi:10.1073/pnas.1422722112

[iv] Collier, P., & Venables, a. J. (2015). Closing coal: economic and moral incentives. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 30(3), 492–512. doi:10.1093/oxrep/gru024

[v] https://www.mcc-berlin.net/en/press-release-detail/article/the-challenges-of-limiting-climate-change-to-15c.html